Standard errors of estimates for strictly positive parameters
Hi,
I'm interested in generating samples from the asymptotic sampling distribution
of population parameter estimates from a published PKPOP model fitted with
NONMEM. By definition, parameter estimates are asymptotically (multivariate)
normally distributed (unconstrained optimization) with mean M and covariance C,
where M is the vector of parameter estimates and C is the covariance matrix of
estimates (returned by $COV and available in the lst file).
Consider the 2 models below:
Model 1:
TVCL = THETA(1)
CL = TVCL*EXP(ETA(1))
Model 2:
TVCL = EXP(THETA(1))
CL = TVCL*EXP(ETA(1))
It is clear that model 1 and model 2 will provide exactly the same fit.
However, although in both cases the standard error of estimates (SE) will refer
to THETA(1), the asymptotic sampling distribution of TVCL will be normal in
model 1 while it will be lognormal in model 2. Therefore if one is interested
in generating random samples from the asymptotic distribution of TVCL, some of
these samples might be negative in model 1 while they'll remain nicely positive
in model 2. The same would happen with bounds of (asymptotic) confidence
intervals: in model 1 the lower bound of a 95% confidence interval for TVCL
might be negative (unrealistic) while it would remain positive in model 2.
This has obviously no impact for point estimates or even confidence intervals
constructed via non-parametric bootstrap since boundary constraints can be
placed on parameters in NONMEM. But what if one is interested in the asymptotic
covariance matrix of estimates returned by $COV? The asymptotic sampling
distribution of parameter estimates is (multivariate) normal only if the
optimization is unconstrained! Doesn't this then speak in favour of model 2
over model 1? Or does NONMEM take care of it and returns the asymptotic SE of
THETA(1) in model 1 on the log-scale (when boundary constraints are placed on
the parameter)?
Thanks,
Aziz Chaouch