Re: Transit Absorption Model in NONMEM
Hi, Nick:
Have been enjoying learning from you.
A follow up question: you mentioned in your last message that model
misspecification can result in large negative simulated predictions. Can
you be more specific on this issue? In which situation it would happen? Any
type of model misspecification, or certain type of model misspecification?
I run into some situations where the diagnosis plots and VPC look alright,
but large negative predictions existed. I used exponential error
model to avoid the negative values, but have been wondering what was going
wrong.
I appreciate your comments.
Thanks!
Siwei
Quoted reply history
On Tue, Dec 10, 2013 at 1:22 PM, Nick Holford <[email protected]>wrote:
> Xinting,
>
> You are correct. Negative simulated measurements occur when you have an
> additive residual error component which is normally distributed with mean
> zero. This means that half of the additive residual errors will be
> negative. When the simulated prediction is similar in size to the standard
> deviation of the additive error distribution then adding a negative
> residual error to the non-negative prediction can make the simulated
> measurement negative. This is what happens in reality when the true
> concentration approaches the baseline noise of the measurement method.
>
> If the estimated additive residual error standard deviation is similar to
> the estimated baseline noise standard deviation then it would be reasonable
> to accept non-positive simulated measurements. On the other hand if the
> estimated additive residual error is much larger e.g. due to model
> misspecification, then it might be more sensible to use DOWHILE to reject
> the non-positive simulated values.
>
> Best wishes,
>
> Nick
>
> On 10/12/2013 10:21 p.m., Xinting Wang wrote:
>
> Dear Nick,
>
> Thanks very much for your comment. I want to follow up with you on the
> negative simulated measurements. From my experience, I also noticed that
> simulation could result in negative simulated results. This usually happens
> in the terminal elimination phase of the PK profile. I am just not very
> familiar with the origin of these values. Is it because we have the
> additive error in the model, so that some results might be negative?
>
> Thank you.
>
>
> On 10 December 2013 13:38, Nick Holford <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> Xinting,
>>
>> The use of THETA with SIGMA 1 FIX is just a matter of style. It should
>> make no real difference to the results if you do it this way or with SIGMA
>> to describe the residual error. Others may wish to debate that fine
>> point.
>>
>> The DOWHILE loop with SIMEPS is used to enforce a simulation constraint
>> that the simulated measured value is always positive. The NEPS is there to
>> avoid getting stuck in the DOWHILE loop.
>>
>> I don't think I would bother with this DOWHILE loop today. It is quite
>> possible to have negative measured values when you use an additive residual
>> error component. I think its a more honest simulation of the residual error
>> to allow negative simulated measurements.
>>
>> Best wishes,
>>
>> Nick
>>
>> On 10/12/2013 6:13 p.m., Xinting Wang wrote:
>>
>> Dear all,
>>
>> I have some naive questions to ask you about the implementation of
>> transit absorption model in nonmem. Below is a demo code from Prof. Holford
>> in which some part of it I can not understand quite well.
>>
>> $PROB Transit delay
>> $DATA sd.csv
>> $INPUT ID TIME AMT WT DV
>> $SIM (20050830 NEW) NSUB=1
>> $EST MAX=9990 SIG=6 ;PRINT=1
>> METHOD=CONDITIONAL INTERACTION
>>
>> $THETA
>> (0,3) ; pop_cl
>> (1,10) ; pop_v
>> (0.1,1) ; pop_ka h-1
>> (0.1,1) ; pop_mtt h
>> (1,5) ; pop_nt
>> $OMEGA
>> 0.09 ; ppv_cl
>> 0.09 ; ppv_v
>> 0.09 ; ppv_ka
>> 0.09 ; ppv_mtt
>>
>> $THETA
>> (0.001,0.1) ; RUV_CV
>> (0.001,1) ; RUV_SD
>> $SIGMA 1 FIX ; EPS1
>> $SIGMA 1 FIX ; EPS2
>>
>> $SUBR ADVAN6 TOL=3
>> $MODEL
>> COMP (TRANSIT)
>> COMP (CENTRAL)
>>
>> $PK
>> IF (NEWIND.LE.1) THEN
>> DOSE=0
>> TDOSE=0
>> TLAST=0
>> ENDIF
>> IF (AMT.GT.0) THEN
>> DOSE=AMT
>> TDOSE=TIME
>> ENDIF
>> CL=POP_CL*EXP(PPV_CL)
>> V=POP_V*EXP(PPV_V)
>> KA=POP_KA*EXP(PPV_KA)
>> MTT=POP_MTT*EXP(PPV_MTT)
>> NT=POP_NT
>> KTR=(NT+1)/MTT
>> NFAC= SQRT(2*3.1415)*NT**(NT+0.5)*EXP(-NT)
>>
>> ;Very important!
>> F1=0
>>
>> $DES
>> DCP=A(2)/V
>> RATEIN=KA*A(1)
>> GUT=DOSE*EXP(-KTR*(T-TLAST))
>> DADT(1)=GUT*KTR*(KTR*(T-TLAST))**NT/NFAC - RATEIN
>> DADT(2)=RATEIN - CL*DCP
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *$ERRORCP=A(2)/VY=CP*(1+RUV_CV*EPS1) + RUV_SD*EPS2IF (ICALL.EQ.4) THEN
>> NEPS=0 DOWHILE(Y.LE.0.AND.NEPS.LT.100) CALL SIMEPS(EPS)
>> Y=CP*(1+RUV_CV*EPS1) + RUV_SD*EPS2 NEPS=NEPS+1 ENDDOENDIFTLAST=TDOSE*
>> $TABLE ID TIME
>> CL V KA MTT
>> CP Y
>> ONEHEADER NOPRINT FILE=transit.fit
>>
>>
>> *My questions are in the $ERROR part of this code.*
>>
>> 1. I noticed that EPS1 and EPS2 is fixed, and the error is simulated
>> using RUV_CV and RUV_SD as thetas. What is the difference if I use below
>> equation:
>> Y=CP*EPS1+EPS2, and let the program to estimate EPS1 and EPS2?
>>
>> 2. What's the purpose of SIMEPS(EPS) here? From my understanding is that
>> if ICALL equals 4, then conduct a limited number of
>> Y=CP*(1+RUV_CV*EPS1)+RUV_SD*EPS2.
>>
>> Thanks to you all for your kind support.
>>
>> --
>> Xinting
>>
>>
>> --
>> Nick Holford, Professor Clinical Pharmacology
>> Dept Pharmacology & Clinical Pharmacology, Bldg 503 Room 302A
>> University of Auckland,85 Park Rd,Private Bag 92019,Auckland,New Zealand
>> office:+64(9)923-6730 mobile:NZ +64(21)46 23 53
>> email: [email protected] http://holford.fmhs.auckland.ac.nz/
>>
>> Holford NHG. Disease progression and neuroscience. Journal of
>> Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics. 2013;40:369-76
>> http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10928-013-9316-2
>> Holford N, Heo Y-A, Anderson B. A pharmacokinetic standard for babies and
>> adults. J Pharm Sci. 2013:
>> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jps.23574/abstract
>> Holford N. A time to event tutorial for pharmacometricians. CPT:PSP. 2013;2:
>> http://www.nature.com/psp/journal/v2/n5/full/psp201318a.html
>> Holford NHG. Clinical pharmacology = disease progression + drug action.
>> British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology. 2013:
>> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bcp.12170/abstract
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Xinting
>
>
> --
> Nick Holford, Professor Clinical Pharmacology
> Dept Pharmacology & Clinical Pharmacology, Bldg 503 Room 302A
> University of Auckland,85 Park Rd,Private Bag 92019,Auckland,New Zealand
> office:+64(9)923-6730 mobile:NZ +64(21)46 23 53
> email: [email protected] http://holford.fmhs.auckland.ac.nz/
>
> Holford NHG. Disease progression and neuroscience. Journal of
> Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics. 2013;40:369-76
> http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10928-013-9316-2
> Holford N, Heo Y-A, Anderson B. A pharmacokinetic standard for babies and
> adults. J Pharm Sci. 2013:
> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jps.23574/abstract
> Holford N. A time to event tutorial for pharmacometricians. CPT:PSP. 2013;2:
> http://www.nature.com/psp/journal/v2/n5/full/psp201318a.html
> Holford NHG. Clinical pharmacology = disease progression + drug action.
> British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology. 2013:
> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bcp.12170/abstract
>
>