Re: General question on modeling

From: Anthony J. Rossini Date: March 19, 2007 technical Source: mail-archive.com
I'd highly recommend reading Frank Harrell's book on Regression Modeling if you think that stepwise regression makes any sense. While much of the book applies to linear and generalized linear (i.e. categorical, etc) regression models, nonlinear models (and mixed effects models) would generally fall into the "well, if the simple case was like that, it can't be any simpler for the harder cases..."... Frank demonstrates some of the reasons that p-values from models generated using stepwise modeling are fairly useless (i.e. don't follow the behavior you'd expect from p-values). The literature to start looking at would be modern variable selection techniques for linear regression, i.e. work at Stanford Statistics by Hastie, Tibshirani, and their collaborators and former grad students (LASSO, LARS, elastic nets, and similar approaches).
Quoted reply history
On Monday 19 March 2007 19:32, Mark Sale - Next Level Solutions wrote: > Dear Colleagues, > I've lately been reviewing the literature on model building/selection > algorithms. I have been unable to find any even remotely rigorous > discussion of the way we all build NONMEM models. The structural > first, then variances/forward addition/backward elimination is > generally mentioned in a number of places (Ene Ettes in Ann > Pharmacother, 2004, Jaap Mandemas series on POP PK series J PK Biopharm > in 1992, Jose Pinheiros paper from the Joint Stats meeting in 1994, > Peter Bonates AAPS journal article in 2005, Mats Karlsons AAPS > PharmSci, 2002, the FDA guidance on Pop PK). It is most explicitly > stated in the NONMEM manuals (Vol 5, figure 11.1) - without any > reference. From the NONMEM manuals it is reproduced in many courses, > and has become axiomatic. I've looked at the stats literature on > forward addition/backwards elimination in both linear and logistic > regression, where it is at least formally discussed (with some > disagreement about whether it is "correct"). But, I am unable to find > any justification for the structural first, then covariates (drive by > post-hoc plots), then variance effects approach we use (I'm sure many > people will point out that it is not nearly that linear a process, > although in figure 11.1, Vol 5 of the NONMEM manuals, it is depicted as > a step-by-step algorithm, without any looping back). Can anyone point > me to any rigorous discussion of this model building strategy? > > Mark Sale MD > Next Level Solutions, LLC > www.NextLevelSolns.com -- best, -tony [EMAIL PROTECTED] Muttenz, Switzerland. "Commit early,commit often, and commit in a repository from which we can easily roll-back your mistakes" (AJR, 4Jan05). pgpKbj3BEdf3V.pgp Description: PGP signature
Mar 19, 2007 Mark Sale General question on modeling
Mar 19, 2007 Anthony J. Rossini Re: General question on modeling
Mar 19, 2007 Nick Holford Re: General question on modeling
Mar 19, 2007 Paul Hutson Re: General question on modeling
Mar 19, 2007 Stephen Duffull RE: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Nick Holford Re: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Stephen Duffull RE: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Mark Sale RE: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Paul Hutson Re: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Michael Fossler General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Peter Bonate General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Michael . Looby RE: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Michael Fossler General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 James G Wright RE: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Tim Bergsma Re: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Alison Boeckmann Re: General question on modeling
Mar 20, 2007 Marc Gastonguay Re: General question on modeling
Mar 21, 2007 Tobias Sing Re: General question on modeling
Mar 21, 2007 Mark Sale RE: General question on modeling